Looks like Russia is gearing up to declare victory in Ukraine — maybe in just a few days. And Trump’s latest comments about Zelensky might’ve helped push things in that direction, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the GUR. Putin plans to frame this as a “win” over NATO, not just Ukraine.
Monday marks three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, though the conflict really began in 2014 when Putin seized Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russia plans to declare victory on a symbolic anniversary
The GUR reports that Putin wants to announce his so-called victory on February 24, exactly three years after the full-scale invasion began. Russian propaganda has pushed the “we’re fighting the West” narrative for a while now, and it’s all part of that playbook.
The role of Trump and US pressure in shaping the outcome
If this actually happens, it’ll come right when Trump and his team are working hard to bring an end to the war. But there’s a big worry in Europe and Ukraine that any deal Trump makes could end up favoring Russia — basically rewarding Putin for his aggression.
Trump calls Zelensky a ‘dictator,’ Musk backs him up
Trump blamed Zelensky for the war, calling him “a dictator without elections.” Zelensky postponed elections due to the war, but he was elected in 2019 in a landslide. Musk supported Trump, claiming Zelensky runs a “fraud machine feeding off dead soldiers” and is avoiding elections because he would lose.
Musk also doubled down, saying, “He is despised by the people of Ukraine, which is why he has refused to hold an election. I challenge Zelensky to hold an election and refute this. He will not.”
Russia’s propaganda and destabilization efforts
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s pushing a whole PR campaign to paint Putin as a peacemaker and anyone opposing its land grab as “against peace.”
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The Kremlin is spreading disinformation and creating chaos to make Ukraine’s Western allies second-guess their support.
Putin attempts to shift the narrative in Russia’s favor
Basically, Putin wants to shed his “war criminal” image and appear as a “reasonable negotiator.” Meanwhile, Russian intelligence is trying to make Ukrainians lose faith in their government and make Ukraine look bad to its allies, weakening its support system.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief predicts a ceasefire
Lt-Gen Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s intelligence agency, believes a ceasefire could happen this year but doubts its longevity. “Most ingredients for it to happen are in place,” he said.
Trump’s false claim about Zelensky’s approval
Trump claimed Zelensky’s approval rating was “down at four percent” and that he’s lost the support of his people. But in reality, a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll puts it at 57%. Zelensky called out Trump for spreading Russian disinformation.
Secretive US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia exclude Ukraine
Trump’s team met with Russia in Saudi Arabia — but Ukraine wasn’t invited. Russia insists a peace deal must include keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Meanwhile, Trump’s still frustrated with NATO itself and thinks the U.S. shouldn’t be paying as much as it does.
NATO’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently told the BBC that allies will need to start spending “considerably more than 3 percent” of their GDP on defense, with a final decision expected in April or May.
Russia pushes Ukraine to hold elections
Despite the ongoing war, Russia demands Ukraine hold elections. Zelensky dismissed this as a Russian pressure tactic, saying, “The future is not with Putin, but with peace. And it is a choice for everyone in the world – and for the powerful – to be with Putin or with peace. We should choose peace,” he said.
European leaders scramble to influence peace talks
Meanwhile, European leaders are scrambling to make sure whatever deal comes out of this doesn’t end up being a win for Russia.
French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer are meeting Trump to prevent a deal that favors Russia. Macron told Trump, “You can’t be weak with Putin. That’s not who you are.”
And that’s where things stand. Putin’s getting ready to call this a “victory,” Trump’s going after Zelensky, Russia’s pushing hard for a peace deal on its own terms, and Europe’s trying to make sure this doesn’t end with Ukraine getting sold out.
We’ll see how it all plays out.
