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Those arguing that COVID-19, the novel coronavirus that has spread across the globe and caused economies to come to a halt as nations put distancing measures in place, is no worse than the seasonal flu do not have data on their side anymore.
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In just over a month, COVID-19’s death toll in the U.S. has passed several significant and terrifying milestones that should put those “it’s just the flu” arguments to rest.
The seasonal flu does take a terrible toll on Americans every year.
The CDC estimates that between 24,000 and 62,000 flu deaths occur every year in America, from between 39 and 56 million infections.
It’s worth noting, however, that that’s just an estimate and not an actual death count. The actual number of reported flu deaths over the past six years range from about 3,400 to 15,600, Scientific American reported.
The last big flu, the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, doesn’t even compare to COVID-19’s toll.
Over the course of 2009, the CDC estimates that H1N1 infected just shy of 61 million Americans. The upper end of the CDC’s death estimate from H1N1 for the entire year is about 18,300.
With physical distancing measures in place for much of the nation throughout the month of April, the latest COVID-19 data from Johns Hopkins puts the U.S. well ahead of every other country with 1,027,295 known cases and 59,446 deaths as of the time of writing.
Some media personalities have tried to liken the death toll of COVID-19 to other causes as well.
In a Fox News appearance Dr. Phil, for example, likened the disease’s mortality rate to that of car crash, smoking, and swimming pool deaths.
According to NHTSA data, more than 36,500 Americans died in traffic accidents in 2018, while smoking and tobacco use do indeed exact a terrible toll, causing 480,000 deaths according to the CDC . The CDC estimated that an average of 3,536 people drowned annually between 2005 and 2014.
None of those causes of death are communicable diseases, however.
For another way of looking at it, more Americans have died just from COVID-19 so far in 2020 than died in the entirety of the Vietnam War.
According to the U.S. National Archives , the Vietnam War claimed 58,220 American lives between 1955 and 1975.
Worse, it’s not clear how accurate reporting of COVID-19 deaths has been so far. As the Financial Times reported, deaths from the disease could be as much as 60% higher than what’s been reported.
However, the overall mortality rate is also unclear.
Globally, the mortality rate based on the numbers available is just below 7%, CNBC reported. However, testing has not been rigorous or thorough, and it’s known that the disease doesn’t cause symptoms in everybody, so there could be countless people who have had COVID-19 and not known it, which would significantly lower the mortality rate.
Nevertheless, even with a mortality rate of 1%, the disease would still be 10 times as deadly as the seasonal flu. It all goes to show that lockdowns and distancing are indeed necessary, as it all could be so very much worse.
h/t: Scientific American , CNBC
