Shell has made a huge announcement. They claim that ” oil production peaked in 2019 .” They are expecting demand to gradually decline by 1 to 2% per year. They also claim that the company’s total carbon emissions peaked at 1.7 gigatons in 2018. This echoes claims made by BP last year. Their forecasts also suggested that we were past peak oil.
The industry is expected to shift towards power.
Shell is forecasting that their production will drop by as much as 18% by 2030. BP, on the other hand, is projecting levels to drop as much as 40% by 2030. But this does not mean the industry will disappear overnight. Shell is continuing to invest in oil exploration while they transition to renewables.
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Shell also announced plans to be carbon neutral.
In September, Shell announced that they will be net-zero by 2050. However, some remain skeptical of these claims. Their plan includes promising to invest in solar and hydrogen power, but it also includes investing in biofuels. This is concerning because biofuels can still create a lot of pollution. In fact, biofuels made from some food crops, which are designed to replace diesel, can create more emissions than fossil fuels .
Shell’s current carbon plans seem to rely on carbon offsets.
If Shell increases the production of biofuels and continues to produce liquefied natural gas, even without oil, the future of energy will still be dirty. To become carbon neutral, Shell plans to increase the purchase of nature-based carbon offsets . Essentially, they plan on planting more trees. And although this is a great way to improve the environment and mitigate climate change, it does nothing to change the underlying causes of climate change. The bottom line is that we need more clean energy.
The future of oil is uncertain.
We know that oil production will continue to fall, but the rate at which it will fall is uncertain. BP predicted three possible scenarios. Two of the scenarios predict a sharp decline in oil demand. In 2018, fossil fuels were responsible for 85% of the world’s energy needs. That could fall to as little as 20% by 2050.
Energy workers need to be our top priority.
It is in all of our best interests to create a sustainable future. This requires long term climate goals. But we must not forget about the short-term impact on those employed in the energy industry. The industry is currently devastated by the pandemic. But bailing out these companies do not help the employees . And, we can’t expect these industries to recover.
We need to now turn our attention towards an ethical transition for the workers. We don’t need to help the industry, we need to help the people that support it.
h/t: Gizmodo
